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There were people and organizations who pr … There were people and organizations who predicted that the USSR would dissolve before the eventual dissolution of the USSR in 1991. Authors often credited with having predicted the dissolution of the Soviet Union include Andrei Amalrik in Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984? (1970), French academic Emmanuel Todd in La chute finale: Essais sur la décomposition de la sphère soviétique (The Final Fall: An essay on the decomposition of the Soviet sphere) (1976), economist Ravi Batra in his 1978 book The Downfall of Capitalism and Communism and French historian Hélène Carrère d'Encausse. Additionally, Walter Laqueur notes that "Various articles that appeared in professional journals such as Problems of Communism and Survey dealt with the decay and the possible downfall of the Soviet regime." Some Americans, particularly conservatives, view Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative as not only predicting but causing the dissolution of the Soviet state. Whether any particular prediction was correct is still a matter of debate, since they give different reasons and different time frames for the Soviet collapse.erent time frames for the Soviet collapse.
, 在1991年蘇聯解體之前，曾有人和組織預測蘇聯即將解體。
, تنبأ العديد من الأشخاص والمؤسسات بحل الاتح … تنبأ العديد من الأشخاص والمؤسسات بحل الاتحاد السوفيتي قبل تفككه بشكل تام في نهاية المطاف عام 1991. غالبًا ما يُنسب فضل للكتُاب في توقعهم لتفكك الاتحاد السوفيتي بمن فيهم أندريه أمالريك في كتابه هل سينجو الاتحاد السوفيتي حتى عام 1984؟ (1970)، والأكاديمي الفرنسي إيمانويل تود في مؤلفه السقوط النهائي: مقال عن تحلل المجال السوفيتي (1976)، والاقتصادي رافي باترا في كتابه انهيار الرأسمالية والشيوعية (1978)، والمؤرخة الفرنسية هيلين كارير دي إنكوس. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، يلاحظ والتر لاكوير أن «المقالات المتنوعة التي ظهرت في المجلات المتخصصة مثل مشاكل الشيوعية والدراسة الاستقصائية تناولت الاضمحلال والانهيار المحتمل للنظام السوفيتي». تتجاوز نظرة بعض الأمريكيين، وخاصةً المحافظين منهم، إلى مبادرة الدفاع الاستراتيجي لرونالد ريغان على أنها تنبؤ لانهيار الاتحاد السوفيتي، بل يعتبرونها سببًا في ذلك أيضًا. ما تزال صحة أي من التنبؤات السابقة، أو غيرها، موضع جدل، نظرًا إلى عدم تناول أي منها للأسباب مختلفة أو الأطر الزمنية المختلفة لانهيار الاتحاد السوفيتي.الزمنية المختلفة لانهيار الاتحاد السوفيتي.
, Durante a maior parte de sua existência, c … Durante a maior parte de sua existência, considerou-se o comunismo como um sistema que não poderia ser desmantelado a partir de dentro, mas sim apenas por expedientes militares externos, como o diplomata americano George F. Kennan deixou claro em seu telegrama. Toda área perdida pelo capitalismo para o comunismo seria uma perda sem possibilidade de retorno - daí a importância da implementação pelos EUA da política de contenção, desenhada pelo mesmo diplomata. Entre 1950 e 1960 esperava-se até mesmo o oposto, como a vitória do socialismo sobre o capitalismo, não na forma militar, mas sim econômica, tecnológica e espacial, como o premie Nikita Kruschev deixou claro em seu discurso na ONU em 1957 (no qual apostava que a URSS ultrapassaria economicamente os EUA por volta dos anos 1980), e políticos e analistas ocidentais concordavam - ou temiam, abertamente. Entretanto, alguns estudiosos, literatos e jornalistas realizaram previsões do colapso da URSS antes mesmo de o processo de autodissolução começar com a queda do Muro de Berlim em novembro de 1989. As tentativas de predição dos acontecimentos futuros por políticos e escritores não é nova. Mas a partir do século XIX começa a ocorrer um processo de melhoramento desses prognósticos, seja pelo talento pessoal do declamante, como Tocqueville, ou do talento de seus assessores e escritores de discursos, como no caso de Reagan. Uma predição que ganhou notabilidade ainda nos tempos em que foi proferida (1848) e se tornou realidade completa para os postulantes liberais, foi a do escritor e político francês Alexis de Tocqueville: "O século XX será o século da luta entre as duas maiores potências que o mundo terá nesse momento: EUA e Rússia, um se batendo pela democracia liberal e o outro pela servidão czarista." Escritores econômicos e sociais como Max Weber, Joseph Schumpeter e principalmente Karl Marx fizeram previsões fantásticas e com um grau elevadíssimo de acerto - além, é claro, de algumas totalmente falhas. O historiador Eric Hobsbawm é um dos que tentam descobrir qual o processo usado para fazer bons prognósticos.Quanto à URSS, alguns poucos foram meditados e feitos através do acompanhamento e tentativas de traçar os processos que se desenvolviam no país, e a maioria foram discursos ocasionais, soltos ao vento. Muito mais fanfarronice política que análise séria. Mas mesmo assim não se pode deixar de tentar elencar esses prognósticos, que ganharam fama a partir do desmoronamento do regime, mas que, numericamente e em dimensão de difusão pública, eram muito inferiores às previsões de manutenção do sistema por tempo indeterminado, ou que poderia ser derrubado apenas por fora, através de uma hecatombe nuclear, ou mesmo, nos anos 50 e 60, de que os comunistas iriam ultrapassar o capitalismo em tecnologia e produção de riqueza. Os autores geralmente creditados por terem previsto o colapso da União Soviética incluem no “1984: Chegará a URSS até lá?” (1970), o acadêmico francês Emmanuel Todd em “La Chute Finale: Essais sur la decomposition de la sphère Soviétique (a queda final: um ensaio sobre a decomposição da esfera soviética) (1976), o economista Ravi Batra, em seu livro A Queda do capitalismo e comunismo de 1978 e o historiador francês Hélène Carrère d'Encausse. Além disso, Walter Laqueur afirmou que "vários artigos de pesquisa que apareceram em revistas profissionais, principalmente no “Problemas do comunismo” apontam para uma decadência e a possível queda do regime soviético". Nos Estados Unidos, principalmente entre os conservadores, o político mais creditado em prever o colapso da União Soviética foi o presidente Ronald Reagan. Muitas das previsões feitas antes de 1980 sobre a queda da União Soviética, foram consideradas por aqueles que as pronunciaram como uma possibilidade um pouco remota, em vez de uma probabilidade. Contudo, para alguns (como Amalrik e Todd), a ideia era muito mais do que um pensamento passageiro. No caso de Ludwig von Mises, ele chamou o colapso da União Soviética como uma certeza absoluta, porém ele não deu qualquer prazo razoável, para testar sua previsão. prazo razoável, para testar sua previsão.
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Durante a maior parte de sua existência, c … Durante a maior parte de sua existência, considerou-se o comunismo como um sistema que não poderia ser desmantelado a partir de dentro, mas sim apenas por expedientes militares externos, como o diplomata americano George F. Kennan deixou claro em seu telegrama. Toda área perdida pelo capitalismo para o comunismo seria uma perda sem possibilidade de retorno - daí a importância da implementação pelos EUA da política de contenção, desenhada pelo mesmo diplomata. Entre 1950 e 1960 esperava-se até mesmo o oposto, como a vitória do socialismo sobre o capitalismo, não na forma militar, mas sim econômica, tecnológica e espacial, como o premie Nikita Kruschev deixou claro em seu discurso na ONU em 1957 (no qual apostava que a URSS ultrapassaria economicamente os EUA por volta dos anos 1980), e políte os EUA por volta dos anos 1980), e polí
, There were people and organizations who pr … There were people and organizations who predicted that the USSR would dissolve before the eventual dissolution of the USSR in 1991. Authors often credited with having predicted the dissolution of the Soviet Union include Andrei Amalrik in Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984? (1970), French academic Emmanuel Todd in La chute finale: Essais sur la décomposition de la sphère soviétique (The Final Fall: An essay on the decomposition of the Soviet sphere) (1976), economist Ravi Batra in his 1978 book The Downfall of Capitalism and Communism and French historian Hélène Carrère d'Encausse. Additionally, Walter Laqueur notes that "Various articles that appeared in professional journals such as Problems of Communism and Survey dealt with the decay and the possible downfall of the Soviet regimethe possible downfall of the Soviet regime
, تنبأ العديد من الأشخاص والمؤسسات بحل الاتح … تنبأ العديد من الأشخاص والمؤسسات بحل الاتحاد السوفيتي قبل تفككه بشكل تام في نهاية المطاف عام 1991. غالبًا ما يُنسب فضل للكتُاب في توقعهم لتفكك الاتحاد السوفيتي بمن فيهم أندريه أمالريك في كتابه هل سينجو الاتحاد السوفيتي حتى عام 1984؟ (1970)، والأكاديمي الفرنسي إيمانويل تود في مؤلفه السقوط النهائي: مقال عن تحلل المجال السوفيتي (1976)، والاقتصادي رافي باترا في كتابه انهيار الرأسمالية والشيوعية (1978)، والمؤرخة الفرنسية هيلين كارير دي إنكوس. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، يلاحظ والتر لاكوير أن «المقالات المتنوعة التي ظهرت في المجلات المتخصصة مثل مشاكل الشيوعية والدراسة الاستقصائية تناولت الاضمحلال والانهيار المحتمل للنظام السوفيتي». تتجاوز نظرة بعض الأمريكيين، وخاصةً المحافظين منهم، إلى مبادرة الدفاع الاستراتيجي لرونالد ريغان على أنها تنبؤ لانهيار الاتحاد السوفيتي، بل يعتبرونها سببًا في ذلك أيضًا.السوفيتي، بل يعتبرونها سببًا في ذلك أيضًا.
, 在1991年蘇聯解體之前，曾有人和組織預測蘇聯即將解體。
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Previsões de colapso da União Soviética
, تنبؤات انهيار الاتحاد السوفيتي
, Predictions of the collapse of the Soviet Union
, 蘇聯解體的預言
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