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Illusion of validity is a cognitive bias i … Illusion of validity is a cognitive bias in which a person overestimates their ability to interpret and predict accurately the outcome when analyzing a set of data, in particular when the data analyzed show a very consistent pattern—that is, when the data "tell" a coherent story. This effect persists even when the person is aware of all the factors that limit the accuracy of their predictions, that is when the data and/or methods used to judge them lead to highly fallible predictions. Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky explain the illusion as follows: "people often predict by selecting the output...that is most representative of the input....The confidence they have in their prediction depends primarily on the degree of representativeness...with little or no regard for the factors that limit predictive accuracy. Thus, people express great confidence in the prediction that a person is a librarian when given a description of his personality which matches the stereotype of librarians, even if the description is scanty, unreliable, or outdated. The unwarranted confidence which is produced by a good fit between the predicted outcome and the input information may be called the illusion of validity." In one study, for example, subjects reported higher confidence in a prediction of the final grade point average of a student after seeing a first-year record of consistent B's than a first-year record of an even number of A's and C's. Consistent patterns may be observed when input variables are highly redundant or correlated, which may increase subjective confidence. However, a number of highly correlated inputs should not increase confidence much more than only one of the inputs; instead higher confidence should be merited when a number of highly independent inputs show a consistent pattern.ependent inputs show a consistent pattern.
, 效度错觉是一种认知偏差，是指人們在分析一组数据时往往會高估他们预测结果的能力。 Amos Tversky和Daniel Kahneman在他们1973年發表的论文“预测心理学”中首次提到了這種概念。
, Ілюзія вагомості — це переконання, що додатково отримана інформація надає додаткові значущі дані для прогнозування, навіть коли це очевидно не так.
, La ilusión de validez es un sesgo cognitiv … La ilusión de validez es un sesgo cognitivo en el que una persona sobreestima su capacidad de interpretar y predecir acertadamente el resultado de un hecho futuro basándose en el análisis de un conjunto de datos. En particular, las personas sucumben frecuentemente en este sesgo cognitivo cuando se desprende una historia coherente de los datos analizados, y sobre todo, cuando las variables usadas en el estudio están altamente correlacionadas. Este efecto persiste incluso cuando la persona es consciente de la multiplicidad de factores que limitan la precisión de sus predicciones, es decir, cuando los datos y/o los métodos usados para juzgarlos conllevan predicciones fallidas con alta probabilidad. El concepto es empleado por el Premio Nobel de Economía Daniel Kahneman, en su obra Pensar rápido, pensar despacio. Se trata de la primera ilusión cognitiva que descubrió. primera ilusión cognitiva que descubrió.
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Illusion of validity is a cognitive bias i … Illusion of validity is a cognitive bias in which a person overestimates their ability to interpret and predict accurately the outcome when analyzing a set of data, in particular when the data analyzed show a very consistent pattern—that is, when the data "tell" a coherent story. This effect persists even when the person is aware of all the factors that limit the accuracy of their predictions, that is when the data and/or methods used to judge them lead to highly fallible predictions. them lead to highly fallible predictions.
, La ilusión de validez es un sesgo cognitiv … La ilusión de validez es un sesgo cognitivo en el que una persona sobreestima su capacidad de interpretar y predecir acertadamente el resultado de un hecho futuro basándose en el análisis de un conjunto de datos. El concepto es empleado por el Premio Nobel de Economía Daniel Kahneman, en su obra Pensar rápido, pensar despacio. Se trata de la primera ilusión cognitiva que descubrió. primera ilusión cognitiva que descubrió.
, 效度错觉是一种认知偏差，是指人們在分析一组数据时往往會高估他们预测结果的能力。 Amos Tversky和Daniel Kahneman在他们1973年發表的论文“预测心理学”中首次提到了這種概念。
, Ілюзія вагомості — це переконання, що додатково отримана інформація надає додаткові значущі дані для прогнозування, навіть коли це очевидно не так.
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Illusion of validity
, Ilusión de validez
, Ілюзія вагомості
, 效度的錯覺
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